A coming wave of adjustable-rate mortgage resets starting in 2028 will hurt some homeowners, but the housing market as a whole is not set up for a 2008-style crash.

• Homeowners who took cheap adjustable-rate mortgages in 2021 are facing huge payment jumps when their rates reset in 2028, in some cases nearly 50% higher monthly payments.
• Canada has a much bigger problem since half of its mortgages are adjustable-rate, while in the US only about 10-11% of new mortgages are adjustable and over 90% of households have locked-in fixed rates.
• California and Florida have the most exposure to these resets, but California buyers tend to have higher incomes to absorb the hit.
• Overbuilt markets like Texas and central Florida are still weak and prices have already dropped sharply there, while supply-constrained markets like California are seeing prices climb again.
• Rising government bond yields are pushing mortgage rates up again, adding more pressure on affected homeowners.

Outlook: Widespread payment shocks are likely for a slice of borrowers hitting their reset dates, but a broad housing crash looks unlikely — a weakening job market, possibly worsened by AI-driven job cuts, is seen as more likely to force interest rates down before real estate itself collapses.