The US bond market and the dollar face mounting pressure as debt piles up and China's gold buying surges, a bad sign for the dollar and good news for gold holders.

• Companies and the government together are issuing nearly $4 trillion in bonds this year, and buyers are getting harder to find without paying higher rates.
• The Treasury had to buy back bonds again to calm panic selling, but far more investors wanted out than the government could absorb, showing the rally is fragile.
• Ordinary Chinese citizens, not just Beijing, are buying massive amounts of gold through simple savings plans at major banks, since Chinese stocks, real estate, and bonds all offer poor returns.
• Allies like France and the Netherlands have pulled gold out of US vaults over fears of sanctions or seizure, while the US has been net exporting gold to Asia.
• US national debt has hit $40.5 trillion, and the likely fix (printing money to buy back bonds) would quietly devalue the dollar even as officials deny there's an affordability problem.

Outlook: Expect China to keep buying gold dips, more allies to repatriate bullion, and pressure building on the Fed to cut rates even with inflation still elevated, especially if tensions with Iran escalate oil prices after the midterms.