Bond market stress gauges just hit a peak, and history suggests that's actually a bullish setup for stocks over the next couple of weeks.

• The cost to insure against default on companies like Nvidia, Meta, and CoreWeave spiked fast, a sign investors got nervous about the massive borrowing spree funding AI data centers.
• In past episodes this year, once that fear gauge peaked, stocks rallied to new highs about two weeks later — the pattern may be repeating now.
• Big tests are coming fast: elections, Fed decisions, and earnings from Microsoft and Amazon, all of which could resolve this week and remove sources of fear.
• Meta's stock sale to fund its AI spending got snapped up by investors at five times demand, a sign the market isn't actually scared of all this debt — it's buying it.
• Elon Musk's companies, Meta, and Anthropic are all raising huge sums (tens of billions each) to pay for AI computing power, and so far investors keep showing up for it.

Outlook: If this fear measure keeps cooling off while investors keep buying the debt and stock offerings, stocks could be setting up for another run at record highs within the next couple of weeks.