A huge pile of apartment and commercial property loans is coming due, which is bad news for landlords who borrowed heavily in 2022 but good news for buyers sitting on cash.

• Property owners owe more than $1.8 trillion over the next decade, with about $300 billion due this year alone.
• Sunbelt markets like Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Denver were flooded with new luxury apartments, so rents fell just as costs rose.
• Dallas syndicator S2 Capital racked up $400 million in loan defaults; CEO Scott Everett told investors they get nothing back, is being personally sued, and has put his own home up for sale.
• The squeeze came from variable-rate loans plus rising insurance, labor, and repair costs turning cash-flow-positive buildings negative.
• Cash buyers are now picking up foreclosed complexes at steep discounts, and offices get a lifeline from being converted into small container-sized data centers.

Outlook: Sunbelt apartments likely have not bottomed yet, with the biggest wave of loan maturities hitting between 2027 and 2030.