Wall Street has sharply raised its profit forecasts for SpaceX on the back of AI data center demand, which is good news for holders but rests entirely on AI companies keeping up their spending spree.

• Analysts have raised SpaceX's expected profits for the next several years by four to six times, mostly because of compute rentals, not rockets.
• Anthropic has jumped its planned spending on computing power from $180 billion to over $500 billion, and OpenAI's plans are bigger still.
• Anthropic is paying a steep premium for SpaceX compute, and analysts now expect fat profit margins from renting it out.
• After outages in Memphis knocked services offline, Elon Musk is swapping in SpaceX engineers, slowing the buildout to add backups and improve reliability.
• The catch: SpaceX still has to borrow hundreds of billions to build 10 gigawatts of capacity, and the interest bill will eat a big chunk of those profits.

Outlook: The stock's case holds only if OpenAI and Anthropic keep spending at this pace — Anthropic's upcoming IPO filing will be the first real test.