Falling prices for AI model usage are good for companies that buy AI, but bad for the labs and chipmakers whose spending assumes fat margins forever.

• The average price companies pay for AI output has dropped by half since the start of the year, mainly because free, open-weight models are getting good.
• Anthropic is expanding its borrowing line to $15 billion before its IPO, seven times its old credit line, to cover huge compute bills including a $45 billion, six-year deal with Lambda.
• Goldman Sachs flags the math problem: token volumes are up sharply but dollar spend is barely up, so revenue for the big AI labs can shrink even as usage explodes.
• Cheap tokens help the buyers — software firms, Dell and local hardware, ad companies like Meta and Netflix — because running AI in your own office now beats paying per use.
• The bet is that Anthropic replaces falling token income with software subscriptions fast; if that takes years instead of months, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia and the whole chip trade look overpriced.

Outlook: Stocks could keep pushing to new highs for another six to twelve months, but Anthropic's IPO filing will show whether the AI buildout can still pay for itself.