The Fed's new chair talked tough on inflation at Jackson Hole, and traders now think a rate hike is far more likely — bad news for stocks and anyone hoping for cheaper borrowing.

• Warsh said inflation progress has stalled and blamed the Fed itself for years of high prices.
• Market odds of a rate hike jumped to 50% from about a third right after he spoke.
• He called the economy resilient, business spending strong and lending easy — all arguments for raising rates.
• Government bond yields climbed back toward 4.7%, which pushes up borrowing costs across the board.
• A hike before the midterm elections still looks unlikely for political reasons, but December is now in play.

Outlook: Expect no move at the next couple of meetings, with the real risk of a rate hike landing in December.