Nvidia beats earnings but shadow guarantees and customer concentration weigh on the stock
Nvidia's latest results were strong, but hidden risks in the fine print could cap how much the stock can climb from here.
- Sales and profits beat expectations again, and next quarter's forecast came in above what analysts wanted.
- Three customers made up 44% of Nvidia's sales for the first half of the year, so the whole story rests on a handful of buyers.
- Nvidia has promised to backstop over $100 billion in leases for an OpenAI data center site, and that could grow toward $200 billion — debt that never shows up on its books.
- The company is also pouring tens of billions into buying stakes in the customers who buy its chips, a loop that looks good until sales slow.
- Profit margins are still huge but slipping slightly, as memory chips get more expensive and normal PC and gaming sales stay weak.
Outlook: The stock looks cheap on earnings and could move up now that the results are out, but the off-the-books promises and reliance on a few giant customers are what keep the price down.