Government borrowing costs have jumped to their highest level since 2007, which is bad news for anyone with a mortgage, a car loan, or credit card debt.

• Governments everywhere are issuing huge amounts of debt and there aren't enough buyers, so lenders can demand higher rates.
• Those rates set the price of most borrowing in America, from home loans to small business loans to student loans.
• The Iran conflict, an unclear Fed, and the massive AI spending boom are all pushing rates up at once.
• Smaller and mid-sized banks are the weak point — the last rate spike in 2023 took down Silicon Valley Bank.
• Treasury tried to prop up the Japanese yen by selling euros, but the effort has already been wiped out, and Japan holds over a trillion dollars in US debt it could dump.

Outlook: If the 10-year climbs past 5% and the 30-year past 6%, expect real trouble at some banks — and unlike last year's tariff scare, this one can't be switched off.