Confidence in US debt is cracking, and that's bad for the dollar and Treasury bonds but good for gold.

• The national debt is nearing $40 trillion and growing over $90,000 a second, scaring off the investors who normally buy US bonds.
• To refinance, Bessent is selling huge amounts of short-term T-bills instead of long-term bonds, a stopgap that forces constant rollovers and risks higher costs if rates rise.
• With foreign central banks like Japan and China pulling back, BlackRock is betting dollar-backed stablecoins become the next big buyers of Treasuries — issuers park customer dollars in T-bills.
• The catch: stablecoin buyers are fickle, and a crypto or financial panic could trigger mass redemptions, forcing a fire sale of Treasuries and spiking yields.
• Gold jumped 10% in a week as investors flee the dollar, betting the Fed will eventually print money to prop up allies like Japan and the bond market.

Outlook: The 10-year yield is climbing toward 4.8%, and unless spending — including the costly Iran war — is reined in, the bond stress and gold's rise are likely to keep going.