AI investing is shifting, and the takeaway is cautious: the money in AI is moving away from the chipmakers and the big model companies toward a smaller group of software firms that own hard-to-copy data.

• AI has three profit layers — the chips (compute), the big language models (LLMs like ChatGPT and Claude), and the software built on top.
• The chip layer and the LLM layer will both likely become commodities, meaning cheap and interchangeable, so their fat profits fade over the next decade.
• Chinese models like DeepSeek are already dragging down what OpenAI and Anthropic can charge, putting those companies in a race to protect their value.
• The real winners are software firms with a data moat — Palantir, Axon (police body cams), Salesforce — because customers get locked in and can't easily switch.
• Chip demand stays strong only while there's a shortage; once supply catches up, chipmakers lose their pricing power too.

Outlook: Expect a rocky week with the Fed meeting, Microsoft and Meta earnings, and a shaky Iran ceasefire, but the longer-term bet is on data-rich software companies rather than chips or model makers.