CPI inflation report comes in hotter than expected, stocks fall
Inflation ticked up again instead of cooling, and that knocked down stocks, gold, and Bitcoin — bad news for investors hoping for cheaper money soon.
- Prices rose faster than forecast in September, and the trend is heading up, not down.
- Odds of a Fed rate hike at the late-October meeting jumped after the report, and the threat alone is enough to drag on stocks.
- Diesel is the main culprit — it has gone from under $4 a gallon to over $6 in a year, which pushes up the cost of almost everything that gets shipped or farmed.
- Government bond yields spiked, which strengthened the dollar and pulled down gold and silver.
- Diesel stays tight because refined fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz still haven't recovered, even as crude oil moves more freely again.
Outlook: Stocks likely stay stuck until long-term interest rates fall, which would take cheaper energy, a divided Congress after the election, or the Fed stepping in with more money printing.