A wave of AI borrowing is pulling money out of chip stocks, but bond yields and the Iran standoff both look close to turning the corner — cautiously good news for investors willing to sit through the next week.

• Roughly $140 billion of new borrowing was announced in a week — Broadcom deals with Anthropic and OpenAI, SpaceX, and a pending Oracle raise — and that money has to come out of somewhere, so chip stocks are getting drained while Apple, Meta and some software names soak up the flows.
• The strain is showing in the bond market: SpaceX's 30-year bonds have fallen 14% below face value, pushing its borrowing cost to 8% — mortgage-rate territory for a marquee company.
• Government bond yields look like they have peaked, and long rates slipping while short rates hold steady is the market betting on an Iran deal, cooler oil and cooler inflation ahead.
• Tomorrow's inflation report is set up badly — forecasts are pitched so low that almost any result reads as bad news, which raises the odds of a Fed rate hike this month.
• Iran and the US have each accepted parts of the other's proposal, and the loud public threats on both sides look like late-stage haggling rather than a breakdown; sanctions, the naval blockade and blocked truck routes have left Iran admitting its own supply problems.

Outlook: The likeliest window for an Iran deal is the week before the Fed meets, and a deal plus a soft inflation print would mean one rate hike and done — but the next few days are the rough patch.