The real problem behind the global debt crisis
Rising interest rates around the world are a symptom of weak real growth and high inflation, not runaway government debt — which is worse news for ordinary people than a bond market scare.
- Government bond yields have jumped fast in the US, UK, France and Japan, and everyone is blaming debt and deficits.
- Debt levels don't actually explain it: Japan carries far more debt than Australia, yet their bond yields moved the same way.
- China proves the point — its debt is huge, but with a collapsed property market and almost no inflation, its yields are near record lows.
- US debt compared to the size of the economy is actually drifting down, because inflation is pushing the economy's dollar value up faster than deficits grow.
- The real damage is in the mix: most US growth is just higher prices, so incomes are falling behind the cost of living.
Outlook: Interest rates will follow growth and inflation, so they stay high as long as inflation does most of the work in the economy.