China and Russia are taking control of new Arctic shipping lanes while the US has almost no ships or icebreakers to compete, a bad sign for American power and trade security.

• Melting ice has opened northern sea routes, and traffic through them has quadrupled as ships avoid the Middle East.
• China now runs a weekly shipping route across Russian Arctic waters and is building what it calls a polar silk road.
• America can barely build ships anymore — it makes 2% of the world's ships, has under 200 oceangoing vessels against China's 5,500, and just three icebreakers to the China-Russia 60.
• That matters in a crisis: the Navy relies on commercial ships for supplies, and the Strait of Hormuz, Suez and Panama are all getting riskier.
• Picking fights with Canada, which has far more territory and icebreakers, weakens the one alliance that could balance China there.

Outlook: Expect the Arctic to be treated as a homeland security priority, with pressure to rebuild US shipyards and tie commercial and military production back together.