Stocks and the economy still look strong, but rising government bond yields are the one thing that could break the rally — a warning for investors, not a reason to sell yet.

• The economy is booming on AI spending, with tech activity growing at its fastest pace since 2021.
• Two things matter most: the job market holding up, and OpenAI and Anthropic continuing to buy chips. Both look fine right now.
• Government bond yields keep climbing toward levels that usually break something, pushed up by oil, the deficit, and heavy borrowing by governments and companies.
• Riskier company debt is getting more expensive, which is the main reason to be cautious — though nowhere near 2022 levels.
• Gold may be topping out as Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed, while copper's strength suggests real economic growth.

Outlook: The Nasdaq is expected to keep pushing to new highs, with a US-Iran deal seen as the next big upside trigger.