Bonds and well-located real estate are set up to be the big winners over the next decade, which is good news for savers and patient buyers but bad for gold bugs and anyone loaded with debt.

• Today's high bond yields are being driven by the oil shock and Middle East tension, not a debt crisis — an Iran deal would likely mark the peak.
• Kevin Warsh's new Fed is stacked with people who hate money printing, so the next crisis gets negative rates instead of QE.
• If the Fed won't print, everyone piles into Treasuries in a downturn, pushing long-term rates — and mortgage rates — below anything seen in US history.
• That makes locking in today's 5% two-year Treasuries and buying cheap homes in places that barely allow building the smart play; gold loses, since it peaked the day Warsh was picked.
• Paying down debt now beats levering up — debt only gets attractive again once the money printer restarts.

Outlook: Stocks can keep running while the AI boom lasts, but when the labor market or data-center spending cracks — likely before 2032 — rates collapse and bonds and housing take over.