Government bond yields have jumped sharply, and that is bad news for borrowers, landlords, and probably stocks.

• The 10-year Treasury rate has climbed a full point since March and is now above 5%, with one recent single-day jump that almost never happens.
• That pushes up mortgage rates past 7%, plus car loans and credit cards, and defaults are already climbing fast.
• Landlords who borrowed cheap are now refinancing at much higher rates, and apartment building prices have collapsed — pension funds end up eating those losses.
• The bigger danger is the private credit bubble, essentially subprime lending to businesses, which is quietly getting worse as those firms also refinance at higher rates.
• Rates are rising mostly because of inflation and supply bottlenecks, not real growth — wages aren't keeping up, so this acts like a tax on ordinary people.

Outlook: The likelier path is that consumers give out, demand falls, layoffs follow, and rates come back down for the worst possible reason — a recession, much like 2008.