Trump has promised every American adult a $5,000 check if Republicans keep the House and Senate — a plan that would likely push inflation and interest rates higher, which is bad news for borrowers and stocks.

• The payout would cost over a trillion dollars, more than half the size of the original pandemic stimulus.
• Bond markets read it as inflationary, so government bond yields jumped instead of falling.
• That works directly against the Treasury, which just tried and failed to bring long-term rates down with a bond-buying move.
• Higher inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates rather than cut them, hitting mortgages, credit cards, and stocks.
• Trump also said he will wait until after the election to negotiate with Iran, leaving the oil-tanker attacks and high gas prices in place for now.

Outlook: Passing this through a Republican Party that already struggles to agree on a budget looks difficult, but the mere promise is enough to keep rates high and markets nervous into the election.