Oil prices are falling, which cools inflation and clears the way for rate cuts — good for borrowers, but history says stocks tend to drop when a new Fed chair takes over.

• Oil drives inflation more than anything else, and it is heading down right now.
• Cheaper oil hands Kevin Warsh the excuse to cut interest rates once he takes the Fed job.
• Oil prices can be pushed lower short-term through futures markets, media pressure, and releases from the government's emergency oil stockpile.
• Stocks have fallen an average of 12% in the first three months under almost every new Fed chair — the bigger the change in leadership, the bigger the drop.
• The other path: an Iran deal gets done, inflation data comes in soft, and the money printing starts instead.

Outlook: A market drop in the October–November window is the base case, but an Iran deal could flip it into a rally — nothing here is certain.