The government tried to force long-term interest rates lower and the bond market pushed them higher instead — bad news for anyone hoping for cheaper mortgages before the midterms.

• Treasury announced a small bond buyback meant to pull long-term rates down; yields jumped the moment it was announced.
• Investors saw it as shuffling debt from one pocket to another, not fixing the real problems: the Iran war, tariffs, and the deficit.
• Japan made things worse by selling a huge pile of US government debt to prop up the yen, which pushes American rates up further.
• Past Japanese currency rescues have all faded within weeks, so the yen's bounce is unlikely to hold.
• The one thing that could actually bring rates down is a deal to calm Iran, which would drop oil prices and cool inflation.

Outlook: Rates likely stay high until there is a real de-escalation with Iran, and a sudden Trump climbdown before the midterms is the trade worth keeping cash ready for.