Tesla's real robotaxi money may come from selling cars to fleet operators rather than charging per ride — a bullish case for the stock, and a bad one for Uber.

• Waymo is walking away from Uber in Phoenix, Dallas and Austin and going direct with its own app, which people clearly prefer.
• That shows riders will pick a robotaxi app straight over Uber, so Tesla's own app can win the same way.
• The bigger prize is selling cyber cabs to fleet operators who handle the cleaning and charging, leaving Tesla the fat upfront margin.
• Trump's tax rules let businesses write off the full cost of the cars, which gives Tesla room to charge more.
• Tesla stock is down 19% this year and still looks expensive on current earnings, so this is a multi-year bet, not a quick trade.

Outlook: Nothing forces this to pay off soon — rate hikes or an AI-bubble scare could hit Tesla first — but if fleet sales scale by the end of the decade, the stock has far more upside than analysts currently assume.