The US–Iran fight is pushing oil and inflation higher while countries keep shifting out of the dollar — bad for American consumers, the dollar, and Treasury bonds.

• The US struck Iranian oil tankers and Iran hit back, so oil is climbing again and $120 a barrel is now a real risk.
• US emergency oil reserves are at their lowest since 1982, so releasing more oil can no longer hold prices down.
• Trump wants Canada's dollar to rise against the US dollar, which is really an admission he wants a weaker dollar to make the national debt easier to repay.
• The dollar's share of world reserves has dropped from 71% to 56%, as central banks buy gold instead of US bonds and trade more in their own currencies.
• China's payment system keeps growing, and sanctions on banks dealing with Iran push more countries to build alternatives to the dollar.

Outlook: Expect higher gas and grocery prices, a weaker dollar, and more countries moving trade and reserves away from US bonds while the war drags on.