Tesla's robotaxi rollout is stuck in a slow, human-driven testing phase, which is a short-term negative for the stock but could turn sharply positive once the process speeds up.

• The Cyber Cab event underwhelmed because Musk didn't show up or give a rollout timeline, setting up a "sell the news" drop.
• Tesla uses cameras only, no detailed maps, so it has to send human drivers into each new city first to catch tricky situations.
• Austin took a year to reach fully driverless service; new cities like Houston and Orlando need to get that down to a few months.
• Waymo's cars cost far more to build, so once Tesla clears the testing bottleneck it can scale much faster than Waymo can.
• The bigger money may come from selling Cyber Cabs and self-driving software to fleet operators rather than running a taxi service itself.

Outlook: Watch how quickly new cities go from first test cars to driverless service — that timeline is the main thing that would justify a much higher Tesla price target by 2030.