Wall Street is getting nervous about AI spending, and Anthropic's upcoming IPO filing is shaping up as the moment investors finally see whether these companies make money — a risk for anyone holding AI stocks.

• Wells Fargo has turned cautious on stocks, partly because Anthropic's IPO paperwork will force real numbers into the open.
• Barclays estimates that once training costs are counted, both Anthropic and OpenAI are losing money despite fat-looking gross margins.
• The trick is where training costs get filed: pushing them into "research and development" instead of cost of sales makes profits look far better and earns tax credits.
• Selling AI through business software interfaces is the profitable part, but cheap Chinese and open-source models are about to make those tokens close to a commodity.
• The honest bet on Anthropic is as a software company — Claude Code and similar tools — not as a model factory, since models and compute both get commoditized.

Outlook: Expect the IPO filing to become the market's stress test for the whole AI buildout, with margins likely squeezed hard once the chip and memory shortage eases.