China's push to build its own advanced chipmaking machines looks set to fall far short for years, which is bad news for Beijing's chip ambitions and good news for ASML, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.

• UBS analysts say China won't produce a workable rival to ASML's cutting-edge EUV machines in the next ten years.
• China's effort is judged to be at roughly the same stage ASML itself was at in 2004 — about two decades behind.
• Chinese scientists in Shenzhen built a prototype EUV machine last year by reverse-engineering ASML's design, in a project insiders called China's "Manhattan Project."
• The goal is to make advanced chips entirely with Chinese-made gear and cut the US out of the supply chain completely.
• Washington has pushed the Netherlands to block EUV sales to China since 2018, and Biden-era rules widened the ban in 2022.

Outlook: China will keep pouring money into homegrown chip tools, but it stays dependent on older equipment while Taiwan, South Korea and Japan hold the lead in advanced chips.