Goldman Sachs sees big upside in Nebius as AI data center pricing holds up better than expected — good news for AI infrastructure investors, though the profits are still years away.

• Goldman set a price target implying about 50% upside, well above other estimates of fair value.
• Nebius is selling data center capacity at strong prices and getting paid back on its hardware in under two years, which argues against the "AI bubble" story.
• The company will supply the first Groq production chips for ultra-fast AI responses, going head to head with Cerebras.
• Most of its incoming cash is customer prepayments, so the cash flow numbers look better than the underlying business does.
• Nebius is not expected to turn a profit until 2028, and it is a much smaller player than SpaceX or Google.

Outlook: The stock hinges on whether today's high compute prices last — if the current AI coding boom cools, rental rates could fall 20% and stretch out payback times.