The Iran conflict is now hitting American wallets — bonds are selling off, fuel costs are way up, and even Christmas goods are in short supply.

• The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut for months, and Iran is still selling oil through a shadow fleet despite the US blockade.
• Bonds are getting crushed as investors doubt the US can carry $40 trillion in debt — even top-rated Apple and Google bonds have lost half their value.
• Gas, diesel, and jet fuel all cost far more than a year ago, and diesel is what moves the trucks, trains, and tractors everything depends on.
• Shortages of petroleum-based chemicals mean fewer artificial Christmas trees, and shoes and clothing will cost more.
• The White House has quietly shifted from trying to beat Iran fast to slowly strangling it, and talks with Tehran have been called off.

Outlook: Both remaining paths look bad — a long, costly standoff or a deal on Iran's terms — and prices at home keep climbing either way.