America's beef industry is in bad shape — a shrinking cattle herd, wildfires, water fights, and control by a few giant packers are pushing food prices up and leaving the supply chain one shock away from serious trouble.

• The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest since 1951, and this year's wildfires are burning up the grazing land and winter feed ranchers need, so more herds will be sold off.
• Four companies control 85% of meat processing — two of them Brazilian-owned — and 80% of the meat Americans eat runs through fewer than 40 plants, a setup easily broken by a cyberattack, power failure, or another COVID-style disruption.
• Cattle ranchers are finally getting better prices thanks to tight supply, but higher costs for gas, water, feed, and taxes are eating up the gains.
• Grocery-store ground beef is often blended from many countries and can legally include up to 30% "pink slime" filler, with no clear label telling shoppers where the meat came from.
• Data centers are grabbing scarce Western water that ranchers can't get, adding another squeeze on food production.

Outlook: Expect beef prices to keep climbing and more ranchers to sell out over the next year, with a push for mandatory country-of-origin labeling as the main fix being fought over in Washington.