SpaceX stock has crashed more than 30% from its peak and now trades below its IPO price, and it is bad news for ordinary investors who bought into the hype at high prices.

• SpaceX swung from a small profit in 2024 to a $4.9 billion loss in 2025, with more losses and a $10 billion capital bill piling up.
• Its huge valuation depends on a risky new plan: building AI data centers on Earth to sell computing power against Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and China.
• The company would need its AI revenue to jump about 900% in a single year to hit forecasts, a wildly steep target.
• Chinese AI is around 40 times cheaper per token and now supplies nearly half the world's AI computing, squeezing US providers' profits.
• The whole US AI boom looks fragile, with Nvidia at the center and hyperscalers borrowing so heavily that their debt is nearing junk status.

Outlook: If interest rates stay high and Chinese competition keeps growing, the AI bubble could pop and drag SpaceX down with the rest of the market.