A drawn-out US-Iran war is going badly for America even though the headlines say Washington is winning — bad for US airpower, oil buyers, and Trump's election math.

• The US is burning through its best air defenses fast — about a third of its Patriot missiles and half its top-tier THAAD interceptors gone in 16 days — while Iran keeps firing cheap missiles that cost far less to launch than to shoot down.
• China quietly gave Iran 300–400 new shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles; a US F-15 was already downed and an F-35 hit, so flying jets into Iran is now dangerous.
• Sanctions aren't stopping Iran's oil — it ships 1.3 million barrels a day, mostly to China at a discount, hidden through ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia and paid outside the US-controlled dollar system.
• Trump can't back down before the November 2026 midterms without looking weak, so the loud threats are aimed at US voters more than at Iran, while strikes stay limited to keep gas prices from spiking.
• The war is spreading: Saudi Arabia joined the fight and became a target, Iran hit an LNG port in Egypt that feeds Europe, and Kuwait and Bahrain are now being named as possible targets.

Outlook: With ammo running low and the election clock ticking, the pressure is on Iran to simply outlast America — watch the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi oil sites, and European silence over the next few days.