The US bond market is flashing warning signs as investors grow wary of buying government debt, which is bad for the economy and anyone holding US Treasuries.

• The 30-year government bond rate has stayed above 5% for the longest stretch since 2007, near the last financial crisis levels.
• The cause is heavy government spending — the Iran conflict, a defense budget jumping toward $1.5 trillion, and a growing national debt with fewer buyers.
• Japan and other foreign holders may not keep buying US debt, and 5% may not be enough to attract them given the risk of losses.
• The economy leans heavily on AI, but big tech is spending more on data centers than it earns, running cash-flow negative into 2027.
• The Iran fighting is escalating with threats to oil shipping, and new strikes are being weighed in Mali, adding more cost and risk.

Outlook: If spending and war costs keep rising without buyers for US debt, bond rates stay high and pressure on the economy grows.