February 28
War begins before the CSV period.
The United States and Israel attack Iran, citing regime change, nuclear, missile, and proxy-force objectives. Iran retaliates across the region and restricts Hormuz traffic.
Iran war
Iran war
This is not one failed ceasefire but a sequence of at least four distinct diplomatic cycles. Each cycle temporarily lowers oil and market fear, then breaks on unresolved nuclear terms, threats against negotiators, attacks on shipping, or Israel–Lebanon fighting. Iran’s durable leverage is Hormuz and low-cost missile/drone attrition; the United States’ limiting factors are domestic support, oil and inflation, missile inventories, and the inability to guarantee Israeli restraint.
Only this threadAlso happens in another thread
Said in advance
April 28borne out
That the war would shift from direct bombing toward blockade, infrastructure attacks and economic strangulation.
July 12–14: Trump announced a blockade and a 20% Hormuz cargo charge, having already moved to a blockade strategy in early May.
February
April
April 28
The archive opens during a fragile ceasefire.
Its first article predicts that the conflict will shift toward blockade, infrastructure attacks, and economic strangulation.
In the archive
May
May 5–8
Trump pauses, then U.S. strikes resume.
The archive’s May 6 item describes a shift toward a blockade after Iranian missile resistance; AP’s later review says the ceasefire effectively lasts until May 8, when U.S. forces strike Iranian tankers.
In the archiveAP
May 13–19
Threats, canceled attacks, and economic pressure alternate.
Trump postpones a planned attack after military warnings while Iran demonstrates it can threaten Gulf facilities and shipping. Oil, strategic reserves, and bond yields become central to U.S. decision-making.
In the archive
May 20
The Senate advances a War Powers resolution.
The 50–47 vote reflects mounting domestic opposition but does not immediately end operations.
Also lands in US politics, Ukraine
In the archive
May 23
Trump announces an initial Hormuz memorandum.
Markets treat it as a peace breakthrough, although nuclear, sanctions, enforcement, and shipping-toll questions remain unsettled.
In the archive
May 24–25
Negotiations appear close but remain unsigned.
Trump repeatedly describes a deal as imminent; oil falls and equities rally, while hawks in Israel and Washington oppose the terms.
No outside source for this entry — it summarises the archive only.
May 26
The talks collapse and bombing resumes.
U.S. forces strike Iranian boats and coastal sites; Israel launches a major Lebanon campaign; Iran promises retaliation.
In the archive
May 27–30
Retaliation expands.
Iran targets Americans and U.S.-linked assets while negotiations continue in parallel. The Strait remains unresolved, demonstrating that diplomacy and military action are occurring simultaneously.
No outside source for this entry — it summarises the archive only.
June
June 3
Iran strikes U.S. bases in Kuwait.
Explosions are also reported in Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The archive says Iran has abandoned proportional tit-for-tat retaliation in favor of stronger responses.
Also lands in Money & markets
In the archive
June 8–11
Direct war returns.
Israel and Iran exchange missiles; a U.S. helicopter is downed near Hormuz; the United States resumes broad attacks on Iranian infrastructure; Trump threatens Kharg Island and further escalation.
In the archive
June 12–16
Another deal cycle begins.
Trump’s strategy and proposed terms shift repeatedly. By June 16 a framework exists but faces open resistance from Israel and U.S. hawks.
In the archive
June 18
The United States and Iran sign a memorandum at Versailles.
The agreement provides for a ceasefire, sanctions relief, reopening Hormuz, limited Iranian enrichment, and a 60-day clock for final nuclear talks.
In the archiveWashington Post
June 19–20
Israel–Lebanon fighting immediately threatens the memorandum.
Israeli strikes continue; Iran closes Hormuz again; U.S. officials pressure Israel to stop undermining the deal.
In the archive
June 21–23
Talks in Switzerland break down and restart.
Iran walks out after Trump threats, then negotiators produce another road map. Hormuz opens briefly and closes again as Lebanon fighting continues.
In the archive
June 24–30
The framework erodes into renewed strikes.
Reports alternate between nuclear-talk progress and the “end” of the deal. On June 30 Trump strikes Iran after a drone attack on a ship near Hormuz.
Also lands in Israel
In the archive
July
July 3–8
Peace talks stall; shipping attacks end the ceasefire.
Trump declares the ceasefire over after vessels are attacked in Hormuz and U.S. forces strike again.
In the archive
July 9
The United States hits more than 80 targets.
Iran retaliates against U.S. bases; oil rises above $80; sanctions return.
In the archiveAP
July 12–14
Hormuz becomes the explicit battlefield objective.
Iran closes the strait; Trump announces a blockade and a 20% cargo charge, then reverses or softens the plan while notifying Congress that hostilities have resumed.
July 20–24
Oil and regional shipping come under heavier pressure.
U.S. strikes push oil higher; Houthi attacks threaten Saudi routes; the Pentagon seeks more funding; analysts warn that a ground commitment is becoming more plausible even though public support is falling.
No outside source for this entry — it summarises the archive only.
July 25–28
Ukraine opens a new front against Iranian-linked logistics.
Ukrainian drones attack vessels in the Caspian carrying alleged military cargo to Russia; Iran threatens retaliation against Kyiv.
Also lands in Ukraine
July 26
Trump cancels a larger attack because of weapons constraints.
Advisers warn that Patriot and long-range missile stocks are running low and that units have been pulled from Asia.
In the archive
July 29
Iran launches a surprise missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan.
The missiles are intercepted; U.S. and Saudi forces retaliate against Iran-backed sites in Iraq.
Also lands in Money & markets, Ukraine
In the archive
July 30–31
The United States launches another major wave of strikes.
CENTCOM targets IRGC command centers, missile and drone sites, coastal surveillance, and maritime capabilities. Officials simultaneously warn that missile inventories and the Pentagon budget are badly depleted.
Also lands in Israel
August
August 1–2
Trump pauses another planned attack.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other regional governments urge restraint; Trump says the “parameters” of a settlement have been reached. AP notes that several similar pauses ended in renewed attacks.
August 4–5
Iran and Oman finalize a draft Hormuz arrangement.
The reported proposal creates a 60-day temporary system that could be extended, but still awaits approval from Iran’s Supreme Leader and is not a final peace treaty.
August 5
The regional war is still active.
Houthis attack Saudi-linked shipping, Israel strikes southern Lebanon, and the United States remains short of missiles. Trump’s immediate goal has narrowed from regime change and eliminating Iran’s nuclear program to reopening Hormuz and stopping attacks on shipping.
Also lands in China, Israel, Money & markets, US politics, Ukraine
In the archiveAP regional update
What would tell you this has turned
- Whether Iran's Supreme Leader signs the 60-day Hormuz arrangement, or lets it lapse.
- Whether Israel stops striking southern Lebanon — every previous framework broke there first.
- Whether US interceptor stocks are rebuilt, or another strike is cancelled for lack of them.