The period has two competing trades. The first is the Iran/Hormuz trade—oil, inflation, bonds, and equities react to every strike or deal rumor. The second is the AI-capex trade—SpaceX, data centers, chips, and credit surge on promised growth, then weaken as Chinese competition, leverage, and actual earnings become harder to ignore.
That data-centre and semiconductor valuations resembled a bubble.
August 5: SpaceX fell below its IPO price and dropped 13.6% on first earnings, though US indexes stayed near records.
Prices for immediately available oil diverge sharply from longer-dated contracts, reflecting Hormuz disruption and expectations that political de-escalation might be temporary.
The archive connects rising input costs to the Iran conflict and warns that consumers will feel the shock with a lag. Long bond yields move toward levels associated with 2007-era stress.
Miran resigns, Warsh is sworn in, and the central bank inherits rising inflation, weaker labor indicators, political pressure for cuts, and foreign selling of U.S. debt.
Japan and China reduce Treasury holdings; the U.S. 30-year yield reaches levels last seen around 2007; mortgage rates rise; housing affordability deteriorates.
Oil eases and rate-sensitive stocks rise whenever Hormuz reopening appears close, then reverse when negotiations fail. This “headline market” becomes the dominant short-term pattern.
China sells Treasuries and builds a gold hub; Japan sells foreign assets to defend the yen; central banks and institutions increasingly favor gold or non-dollar bonds.
Crypto sells off and Treasury pressure increases as Iran strikes U.S. bases in Kuwait.
The juxtaposition captures the archive’s market thesis: household purchasing power deteriorates while giant AI-linked offerings absorb capital.
Shares price at $135 and close the first day 19% higher at a valuation above $2 trillion.
Officials increasingly discuss future hikes rather than cuts; SpaceX begins giving back some of its first-day gains.
The archive notes central banks holding more gold than Treasuries, while Jeremy Grantham and other investors warn that data-center and semiconductor valuations resemble a bubble.
SpaceX falls below its early highs; South Korea drops almost 8% on July 2 as investors question excess AI capacity.
Oil rises above $80 after the ceasefire collapses; Trump’s proposed 20% cargo charge implies an enormous cost for tankers and threatens another inflation wave.
Crypto benefits from a short squeeze, but SpaceX drops below its IPO price and Tesla disappoints on earnings, showing increasingly selective risk appetite.
CXMT’s debut intensifies fears of a memory glut; South Korea suffers a historic decline and forced deleveraging; semiconductor weakness spreads toward the Nasdaq.
Three officials prefer a hike, and Warsh provides limited forward guidance. Bonds and equities sell off as investors confront persistent inflation and weaker growth simultaneously.
The archive highlights large borrowing and guarantees supporting data-center construction, while rising yields and credit-default-swap prices pressure Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle, and SpaceX.
Japan intervenes and U.S. authorities conduct rate checks, followed by coordinated foreign-exchange action. The objective is not only Japan’s currency stability but limiting Japanese Treasury sales that could push U.S. yields higher.
Markets price in a reopened Hormuz before a final agreement exists.
Revenue rises 92% to $7.81 billion, but higher AI spending drives shares down 13.6%. U.S. indexes nevertheless remain near records and Treasury yields slip.