Canada's push for military and economic independence from the US is backfiring badly, trapping the country in a painful standoff it can't easily win.

• Trade talks between Canada and the US collapsed, triggering tit-for-tat tariffs covering tens of billions of dollars in goods on both sides.
• Prime Minister Mark Carney wants to cut Canada's defense spending reliance on US suppliers, but almost all of Canada's military hardware, GPS, and missile defense depend entirely on American systems with no backup.
• Nearly all of Canada's oil and gas exports, plus most of its trade, flow south through pipelines and infrastructure that can't be rerouted to other markets any time soon.
• Everyday Canadians face higher prices, job losses, and supply chain chaos as the trade war drags on with no end in sight.
• The fight is lopsided: Canada is retaliating against an economy 13 times its size, so it has far more to lose.

Outlook: Expect a long, grinding, and costly separation between the two countries, with Canada bearing the heavier economic burden as it tries to build up domestic industry it currently lacks.