Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside, Odds of a December Rate Cut Jump
The latest jobs data came in much stronger than expected, which is good news for the economy but could make the Fed a little more cautious on rate cuts.
- Private payrolls bounced back hard, and last month's weak reading was revised way up, showing hiring is healthier than it looked.
- Wage growth also got revised higher, meaning workers are gaining some bargaining power back after a weak patch blamed partly on AI replacing jobs.
- The unemployment rate actually ticked down even as more people entered the job market, which is a rare and encouraging combination.
- Hiring was broad-based across healthcare, business services, warehousing, and manufacturing, though construction saw its first dip, a possible early sign that data center building is cooling.
- Bond yields rose a bit on the news and odds of a December rate hike (not cut) jumped, since a hot labor market gives the Fed less reason to ease.
Outlook: If this strength holds, expect the Fed to stay cautious on rate cuts, while markets likely keep recovering from the recent sell-off as panic selling fades.