Markets are jittery but a possible US-Iran peace framework and falling oil prices could be the spark that turns things around — good news for stocks and bad news for anyone betting on sustained conflict.

• Reports say Washington has approved a draft understanding with Iran, with concessions reportedly made on the nuclear program and frozen assets; oil prices have been dropping sharply on hopes of an imminent deal.
• Trump reportedly agreed to end aid to Israel at year's end, saying they no longer need it and can simply buy weapons instead — a sign officials may expect tensions to ease rather than escalate.
• Tech and chip stocks have been hit hard in a broad sell-off, but valuations are now historically cheap even as chip demand and pricing (especially memory chips) keep booming, suggesting the drop is sentiment-driven, not fundamental.
• This week's jobs reports (ADP and the government payrolls data) are a key risk — a weak number could spook markets further, while a solid print would support a rebound.
• Historically, stocks have risen in the six months after a U.S. election every time since 1950, adding to hopes for a turnaround once election uncertainty clears.

Outlook: If the Iran deal is confirmed and jobs data holds up, markets likely stabilize and could rally; a miss on jobs or a collapse in deal talks would add to the recent sell-off.