Israel's elections produced no clear winner, but Netanyahu is still the most likely leader to end up running the next government.

• Turnout hit its highest level since 1999, with Arab voter turnout nearly doubling after surging interest in the outcome, and Arab parties won a record number of seats.
• Neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, won enough seats to govern alone, and both refuse to team up with the Arab parties because too many of their own members oppose it.
• That leaves two swing parties holding the real power to decide who forms the next government, and they're seen as far more likely to side with Netanyahu than with Eisenkot, partly because Netanyahu can use security crises and his ties to Trump to pressure them.
• Eisenkot is not the moderate he's sometimes portrayed as — he's the architect of a military doctrine built on heavy force against civilian areas tied to enemy groups, so swapping him in would not mean a softer approach to Gaza or Lebanon.
• Netanyahu, without evidence, is accusing Arab parties of stealing the election through fraud, a move seen as laying the groundwork to restrict their political participation going forward.

Outlook: Netanyahu is positioned to either form a new coalition or stall and run out the clock toward another election that would favor him, with continued military action in Gaza and Lebanon likely either way.