Oil prices are staying high and the US blockade on Iran is only now starting to really hurt, which is bad news for drivers and good news for Iran's rivals hoping to squeeze its economy.

For months, Iran barely felt the pain from the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz because it had a huge stockpile of oil at sea to sell off at today's much higher prices. That stockpile is now running low, so the squeeze on Iran's oil income is finally starting to bite, eight months into the conflict.

The US is now also trying to shut down Iran's overland smuggling routes into neighboring countries. That won't stop the flow completely, but it raises Iran's costs and forces it to sell at steeper discounts, chipping away at its oil revenue.

Oil hasn't spiked to the doomsday $200-a-barrel levels some predicted, partly because China cut back heavily on buying Iranian oil and partly because tankers are paying huge risk premiums to sneak oil through safer routes. But prices are still elevated, with the US Treasury confirming Iran is quietly getting paid through workarounds. Fuel and gas prices are already up, and China is now ramping its oil imports back up, which will push global prices higher still.

Outlook: With emergency oil reserves running low and China re-entering the market, a fresh escalation in the war could push prices well beyond where they are now.