Inflation is climbing again with no end in sight, which is bad news for people paying for gas and groceries, bad for Trump's party heading into the midterms, and bad for borrowers if the Fed starts hiking rates.

• Consumer prices are rising at close to 4% a year, far above the Fed's 2% target, so rate cuts are off the table and hikes look likely.
• Gas prices jumped last month and are up about a third over the year, while heating oil has nearly doubled — the war with Iran and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are the main cause.
• Tariffs are adding to the pain, and a New York Fed study found about a third of the tariff-driven price increases came from American-made goods, because US factories buy imported parts.
• Housing, used cars, and clothing all got more expensive, and wages have now fallen behind prices for six straight months.
• Higher rates may not even cool things down: AI companies are loaded with debt but keep buying compute and energy at any price, so they pass the cost on instead of pulling back.

Outlook: Expect more Fed rate hikes, more attacks on shipping in the Gulf, and more strain on people who are already leaning on savings and credit cards to get by.