Trump is buying Russian diesel and pausing sanctions to hold down fuel prices before the midterms, which is bad news for Ukraine and Europe and good news for Putin.

• Russia will ship millions of barrels of diesel to world markets, and US sanctions on Russian diesel are paused until 2027.
• That hands Moscow fresh cash for the war, and Europe is furious after years of cutting itself off from Russian energy.
• Trump also threatened to pull weapons and intelligence from Ukraine if it keeps hitting Russian refineries, leaving Europe to pay the bill it can barely afford.
• Oil is still rising anyway, because missile strikes on tankers and refineries and the Gulf blockade keep supply tight — and Europe is stuck buying expensive American gas.
• Scott Bessent is set to shrink sales of long-term government bonds because borrowing costs have climbed too high, shifting the US toward short-term debt just as the Fed may raise rates.

Outlook: The blockade and the diesel squeeze look set to run into 2027, with higher inflation, a wider trade gap, and a nervous bond market as the main risks.