The Fed just raised rates while nearly every warning light is flashing red, a move that could tip the economy into recession.

• Inflation data the Fed actually watches came in cooler than expected, so there was no strong case for a hike.
• The job market is cracking — hiring came in far below expectations and wage growth is slowing.
• Short-term government bond yields are falling while the dollar rises, a combination that usually signals a crisis or recession ahead.
• Bond market swings and junk-debt borrowing costs are both blowing out, the same pattern seen in the summer of 2008.
• This time the hidden bubble is in private credit rather than subprime mortgages.

Outlook: If the parallel holds, expect a sharp risk-off event and a fast reversal from the Fed, with Kevin Warsh's hike remembered as a blunder.