Oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is under steady attack while Saudi Arabia sinks deeper into Yemen — bad news for oil markets, for Saudi Arabia, and for Trump heading into the midterms.

• Iran has hit more than a dozen ships in eight days, and oil still moving through Hormuz now carries a $30-a-barrel war premium.
• Saudi Arabia's US-backed push to retake Yemen's Red Sea coast collapsed within a day, with the Houthis pushing straight back in from the mountains.
• The US embassy is warning Americans in Saudi Arabia to brace for drone and missile attacks, most likely on oil facilities, pipelines and airports.
• Oil prices are lower for now only because the US pressured Europe and Japan to dump emergency reserves, leaving them thin going into winter.
• Trump is resisting direct bombing in Yemen because the Navy is already stretched thin keeping Hormuz open, not because he wants to hold back.

Outlook: Gas prices stay manageable through the election, but with emergency reserves drained and attacks continuing, a sharp price spike this winter looks hard to avoid.