Why the bond selloff is far from over

Oct 01, 2026

Long-term interest rates are still climbing, which is bad for borrowers, homebuyers, and anyone hoping for cheap money soon.

  • Government bond yields have pushed past 5% and buyers are barely showing up at the long end.
  • The Fed is unlikely to move in October, but another rate hike before year-end looks likely as inflation runs hot.
  • Washington changed how it measures inflation, which hides how hard rising costs are hitting ordinary people.
  • Home sellers are getting scared, and deep discounts are already showing up for buyers sitting on cash.
  • New houses are now selling cheaper than nearby used ones because builders are panicking and piling on incentives.

Outlook: Expect rates to grind higher first, with mortgages possibly reaching double digits before any real drop.

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