Stocks are wobbling and most shares are falling even as the economy looks fine, and the likely culprit is Japanese money going home — bad short term, but possibly a buying chance.

• Nearly every market gauge looks fearful: most stocks are slipping while a handful of chip names hold the Nasdaq up, and bank shares are falling hard.
• The economy itself looks healthy — layoffs are down, manufacturing is growing, and lending is still easy.
• The real pressure is coming from government bond yields jumping, likely because Japanese investors are pulling cash out of US bonds and bringing it home.
• Japan looks set to raise rates while the Fed holds, which makes Japanese bonds more attractive and keeps that money flowing out of the US.
• The AI boom is not cracking: older Nvidia chips are actually getting more expensive to rent, since cheap open-source models keep them busy.

Outlook: Expect a few more rough weeks, but an Iran deal and the end of Japan's selling could send yields down and stocks to new highs by year-end.