AI spending boom and rising borrowing costs raise crash risk
Borrowing costs and oil are climbing at the same time the whole economy leans on AI spending — bad news for stocks, and for anyone holding debt.
- Michael Burry now thinks the AI bubble could pop sooner than he first expected, since the boom depends on companies borrowing to keep spending; one bad earnings season could break it.
- Government bond yields have pushed past 5% and Brent crude is above $105, so borrowing is the most expensive it has been since 2007.
- Data center building is now the biggest infrastructure wave in modern US history, bigger as a share of the economy than railroads or the dot-com build-out, and it needs far more power than the grid has.
- Weak spots are already showing: subprime car loans are going bad, and places like Dave & Buster's and Lucky Strike are losing customers while carrying heavy debt.
- Trump is promising $5,000 checks funded by tariffs and pointing to doubled 401(k) balances, while officials shift to weekly wages because people are working longer hours to keep up with prices.
- The administration opened Venezuela's gold trade to US-linked firms after Maduro's removal, but hundreds of millions in gold bars sit unsold in US warehouses because refiners won't certify them as clean.
Outlook: Expect individual company blowups rather than one single crash day, with high rates and expensive oil doing the damage first.