Food prices look set to climb sharply next year, which is bad news for shoppers and farmers but gives people a few months to prepare.

• JP Morgan analysts say a strengthening El Nino is colliding with diesel and fertilizer shortages, with the biggest hit to farm output expected in the first quarter of 2027.
• Fertilizer got scarce and expensive after the Iran conflict cut Middle East supply, and even farmers who never bought from the region now pay double last year's price.
• A European drought, a weak US spring growing season, and high diesel costs are piling onto the same problem.
• Protein like beef, chicken, and turkey is expected to jump the most, along with some fruits and vegetables.
• Holiday grocery sales this Thanksgiving and Christmas may be the last cheap window to stock a freezer with staples before prices move.

Outlook: Expect food inflation to build through 2027, even if the news stays quiet about it heading into the elections.