Washington is boxed in by its own debt costs, which is bad for anyone hoping rates stay normal and good for borrowers if the pressure works.

• Interest on the debt, Social Security and Medicare, and veterans benefits now eat up more than every dollar the government collects in taxes.
• Those costs are growing twice as fast as tax revenue, so higher rates make the hole deeper every year.
• Bond investors are demanding more to lend, since inflation is running above what they earn, and that pushes long-term rates up on its own.
• Higher long-term rates feed straight into mortgages, car loans, and company borrowing.
• Kevin Warsh has to sound tough on inflation in public while needing cheaper money in private, and Trump's tariff threats are aimed at forcing rates down.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on the Fed and more trade threats as Washington tries to push borrowing costs lower.