Official inflation numbers look tame while grocery bills don't — bad news for anyone whose paycheck has to stretch further than the data suggests.

• The Fed is cutting rates and calling inflation beaten, but the everyday cost of food tells a different story.
• Inflation data can be shaped by how it's measured, so there's no single number a shopper can point to and call wrong.
• Easing is being routed through banks: the Fed sells bonds, banks buy them, and the money-printing effect is the same.
• Because it never lands on the Fed's balance sheet, it doesn't look like money printing — so there's less public anger about a weaker dollar.
• Loosening bank rules is what makes this quieter version of stimulus possible.

Outlook: Expect more rate cuts and bank-funded easing, with prices at the register staying high even as official inflation looks under control.