The gap between crude oil and refined fuel prices has hit record highs, which points to much more expensive gas and diesel and more pain for an already fragile economy.

• Refining margins have shot up because war in Russia and the Middle East has cut global exports of gas and diesel sharply.
• If those margins stay high, US gas could run $4.50 to $7 a gallon and diesel could reach $8.50.
• Diesel matters most because everything sold at Walmart, Target, and Home Depot has to be trucked there, so higher costs get passed on to shoppers.
• The job market is already shedding jobs in most recent months, a pattern that has almost always meant recession over the past 75 years.
• Expensive fuel plus layoffs feeds a loop: less spending, weaker company revenue, more layoffs, falling stocks, and a weaker economy still.

Outlook: With no quick end to either conflict, fuel costs look set to keep climbing into a soft labor market — the same setup that broke the economy in 2008.